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May 4 Premarket Outlook

AAPL needs to hold critical 578 number, and analysis of LNKD, AIG, KFT, EL earnings reports.

May 4 Premarket Movers

Stock	Movement	Reason	Our Comments
LNKD	Up 10 points.	Earnings last night.	122.70, which is 52 week high should provide initial resistance.  Above that, stock could be in break-out mode.
AIG	Down slightly.	Earnings last night.	Initially rallied off report, but then sold off.  52 week high of 35.05 should provide good resistance.
KFT	Down slightly.	Earnings last night.	52 week high of 39.99 remains major resistance.
AVP	Up slightly.	Back in play.	Stock blasted off in last 2 minutes of trade yesterday, on news that company would be open to acquisition by Coty Inc. but at higher price.
DGI - GEOY	DGI - up 4 points. GEOY - up slightly.	Merger.	GEOY offers $17/share in cash and stock for DGI.
DUK	Up slightly.	Earnings.	22 area remains major resistance.
* Remember today at 8:30 ET is the unemployment report.  Listen to the Market Outlook show at 8:45 ET for more market movers.

Who Cares About Friday's Unemployment Report?

Does Friday's unemployment number really matter? Do you really think any institutional investor is going to make a long-term decision based on such an unreliable indicator? Does it really make a difference to the economy if the unemployment rate is 7.9, 8.0 or 8.1%? Now 10% would be a different story, but let's face reality, the United States is going to struggle to get the unemployment rate much lower than it currently is. With the loss of manufacturing jobs over the past 20 years there is no way that our service oriented economy will ever be able to replace those manufacturing job losses.

But leave it to CNBC to make a bullish scenario no matter what the number is. If the report is good then great news, the economy is still expanding and the market will rally. On the other hand, if the report is a disappointment then we have a greater chance of QE3.

But if the jobs report does not matter then what does? Two important levels in the June S&P 500 futures contract matter. The first level is very well defined, 1352.50-1354.00, the double bottom, (after the release of April’s poor unemployment data). The second is the nice old round number of 1400.00. On the rebound, the index has managed to rally above 1400 on three occasions, but has closed above it only one time (barely on Tuesday). And this is after a very strong earnings season where a majority of companies have met or beat the Street’s expectations. Perhaps the “smart” money does not expect this trend to continue and wants to get out while the getting is good. An excellent example of this is the sustained selling pressure that has plagued Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) since the 50 point rally after its blowout earnings report. If the earnings forecasts are so rosy and profits are expected to continue to rise, then why have the futures not blown through the high of the move at 1419.75?

In my opinion, the futures are in a similar pattern to the beginning of the year when they were stuck between 1254 and 1286. The market is winding up for its next big move. The question is, in what direction? Regardless of the outcome of the jobs report, the futures are finally going to either clear and stay above 1400 with conviction and make a new high, or the futures are going to sink below 1350 on their way to a much more serious correction.

May 3 Premarket Outlook

Ugly morning for GMCR, PRU.  And retail sales Thurday has volatility in the retail sector.  TGT, M disappoint.

May 3 Premarket Movers

Stock	Movement	Reason	Our Comments
GMCR	Down 19 points.	Earnings last night.	Really beat up this stock last night on lowered guidance.  Old 52 week low of 34.06 could be decent swing number, and may provide good resistance.  30 could be a psychological level.  But this stock is a mess.
PRU	Down 3 points.	Earnings last night.	Going to be an ugly day for PRU.  55 area has good support, but that is a ways from current price.  MET could have slight sympathetic move.
WTW	Down 13 points.	Earnings last night.	Stock killed after earnings release.  Lot of air everywhere in this issue. 70 could provide good resistance.  Great support down at 55.
ALL	Trading up last night.	Earnings last night.	34 area has been major resistance.  Above 34.10, stock could be in break-out mode.
GM	Up 45 cents.	Earnings.	Stock getting nice lift after report.  24 area could provide some initial resistance.
V	Down 2 points.	Earnings last night.	Initial support in 116 area.  Note that MA had weak opening after it's report yesterday, but rallied mid-morning.
* Listen to Market Outlook show at 8:45 ET for more market movers.

May 2 Premarket Show

Mixed earnings today.  CBS, CVS have nice pops, while MA, CMCSA, and TWX disappoint.

May 2 Premarket Movers

Stock	Movement	Reason	Our Comments
CBS	Up 1 point.	Earnings last night.	52 week high of 34.56 may provide some decent resistance.
CHK	Down $1.70.	Earnings last night.	That rally was short-lived.  After popping over 2 points at one point yesterday, CHK has given it all back this morning.  17.50 area has provided some support, but chart is not pretty.
BRCM	Down 70 cents.	Earnings last night.	Major support in 34 area.
CVS	Up $1.29.	Earnings.	Stock breaking out to new 52 week high in premarket.  Keep an eye on old 52 week high of 45.88, that should be decent swing number.  WAG may have sympathetic move.
TWX	Down slightly.	Earnings.	Good support down in 36 area.
DB, BCS, STD, CS, ING	Down 2-4%.	Euro-banks weak overseas.	The yo-yo continues for Euro-banks.  Down today, may put some initial pressure on US financials.
CMCSA	Down 60 cents.	Earnings.	Good resistance at 52 week high of 30.87.  30 could be decent psychological swing number.
MA	Down 6 points.	Earnings.	Keep an eye on 52 week high of 466.98 for resistance.  425 area may provide good support if sell-off ensues.  Visa (V) reports after the bell.
* Listen to Market Outlook show at 8:45 ET for more market movers.

Relevance of Gaps

On our premarket show this morning we highlighted a gap area in the chart of AVP, and the potential for that gap area to be filled. 

May 1 Market Outlook

AAPL getting a bit of a bounce, but will the bounce be met with sellers?  DPZ doesn't deliver, and a discussion on the relevance of gaps.

May 1 Premarket Movers

Stock	Movement	Reason	Our Comments
PFE	Down slightly.	Earnings.	A slight pullback on guidance.  Some initial support in 22.25 area.
DPZ	Down 3 points.	Earnings.	Stock ran up last few days into earnings report.  Giving it all back this morning.  Last week's low of 34.25 may be decent swing number.
AVP	Flat.	Earnings.	Muted action after report.  21.50 area has provided some support last few days.  Below that could get real ugly as there is a gap area in the chart down to 19.50 area.
AAPL	Up 3 points.	Bounce back.	Bouncing a bit this morning after falling below key 600 support area yesterday.  Chart starting to look ugly again.
ADP	Flat.	Earnings.	Has had decent support in 54 area.  52 week high of 57.10 should provide some resistance if rallies ensues.
FDP	Flat.	Earnings.	Has had decent support in 22 area.
* Listen to Market Outlook show at 8:50 ET for more market movers.

April 30 Premarket Update

BKS getting a lift from MSFT.  SUN being acquired by ETP.  AAPL falls back under 600.

April 30 Market Movers

Stock	Movement	Reason	Our Comments
SUN - ETP	SUN - up 8 points.	SUN being acquired by ETP	Cash and stock deal.  SUN will receive $25 in cash + 0.52 shares of ETP.  Could be some strength in the other natural gas stocks.
BKS	Up 14 points.	MSFT to invest $300 million in BKS	MSFT and BKS partner up to form new E-book subsidiary.  BKS more than doubling on this news.  BKS has traded as high as 28.20 on this news.  30 may provide some psychological resistance.
HUM	Down $3.82	Earnings.	Nearly every health care provider that has reported, has sold off after the report. So not surprisingly HUM follows suit.  85 should be a key swing number.
NYX	Offered slightly down.	Earnings.	Very light trade, so hard to gauge market sentiment on this report.  26.50 area provided some support last week, that may be decent swing number.
SCHL	Up 3 points.	Raises guidance.	Hunger Games publisher surging this morning on earnings guidance. Stock struggled in 34.50 area a while back, that may provide some initial resistance.

S&P 500 Index and Big 10 Weekly Outlook - April 30th

Right back at 1400 in the S&P 500 futures. If that was the extent of the correction, it certainly was a mild one. For those of you, including myself, looking for more of a dip in the market, think again. Stellar earnings for the most part, dividend increases, stock buybacks and splits set the stage for a major rally, after staring into the abyss on Monday morning. After failing to breach the low of the move at 1352.50 (Monday’s low was 1354), the shorts started to scramble and new money tried to find a home.

Therefore, Friday’s high (1403) should be a minor stopping point on the way to smashing through the high of the move at 1419.75. However, if the market cannot continue on its merry way early in Monday’s session and the futures slip below 1385, all bets are off on the correction being over.

What is wrong with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)? Perhaps I need to contact my data provider since AAPL is still a three digit stock. After Wednesday’s gigantic move, AAPL has responded with two lower highs, two lower lows and two lower closes. Hmmm, think some investors are just now reading that AAPL has substantially lowered guidance for the third quarter. Perhaps the company itself does not expect the unprecedented momentum to continue forever. And that makes one wonder about the final quarter as well. In my opinion, AAPL needs to hold 600.00 (the close was 603), take out 618 in a hurry, and march to new highs above 644, or this issue may drift lower for the next three months. Or as long as it takes for AAPL to reveal what is next in its pipeline.

Exxon-Mobil (NYSE:XOM) has recovered nicely from its visit to 81.88 earlier in the month. However, it appears to be running out of steam as it approaches its 52 week high (88.13). Of course, a 9 cent miss on earnings did not help the cause. On the other hand, a nice boost in the dividend should keep major investors content for now. At this time, it is hard to identify a catalyst that will propel XOM into a breakout mode and there might not be one until the second quarter earnings are announced. Institutional sellers all through the 87 handle and more at 88.00 have halted several rallies this year and expect that to continue. Below 85.15 (earnings day low), expect XOM to meander its way back down to the 82.00 level.

International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) has recouped almost all of its losses since announcing solid earnings (as usual) and an increase in its dividend and stock repurchase program. Why IBM sold off 10 points following the announcement is beyond my understanding of technical and fundamental analysis. As long as IBM can stay above 206, prepare for an attempt at a new 52 week high (210.69).

Only one prediction for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), it is going to bust out one way or another. And by that I mean, break out to the upside above 32.32 and up to the 52 week high of 32.95, or break down below 31.83 and back down to major support at 30.94. No matter how hard the futures rallied, MSFT would not budge. In fact, MSFT topped out for the week on Monday as the overall market bottomed. Perhaps the street is not convinced MSFT can perform as well in the upcoming quarter and are locking in profits while they still can.

General Electric’s (NYSE:GE) price activity for the last few years reminds me of the children’s story book, “The Little Engine That Could”. But instead of the popular phrase of “I think I can” GE ‘s chart offers “I think I cannot”. Time and time again, it struggles to reach a crucial resistance level and then retreats no matter what analysts say, or how good the news or earnings seem to be. In fact, GE is still two points away from its post recovery 2011 high (21.65) and over 20 points from its 2008 high (38.52). If you can identify the catalyst for GE to make new highs than hold on, or otherwise you may have to be satisfied with its 3.44% dividend yield.

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) has rallied since flirting with the 100 level earlier in the month. CVX reported a 5% increase in profits as well as an 11% boost in its dividend. After four consecutive higher lows and higher highs, CVX may be in for a breather. A double top just under 107 has halted the rally for now. This area coincides with the 50% retracement from the mid-March high (112.28) to the mid-April low (100.51). If CVX does retreat expect minor support in the mid 102’s and major support at the recent low of 100.51. Above 107 there is minor resistance at 108.50 and major resistance at the all time high of 112.28.

AT&T (NYSE:T) has made a fool out of me. After writing this stock off for dead after going ex-dividend earlier in the month, T has exploded to levels not seen since August of 2008. A better than expected earnings report propelled the stock through major resistance at 32 and sent short-sellers scrambling for cover when it was taken out on Thursday. Follow through on Friday allowed T to tack on nearly 2 points on the week, which is unprecedented for this heavily traded issue. Expect some institutional selling at 33 and major resistance at the July 2008 high of 33.58. However, be cognizant that T has made five consecutive higher highs, higher lows and higher closes, and investors wanting to lock-in profits should focus on 32.45 as an exit point on weakness.

Often in my Weekly Outlook and during the morning broadcasts at www.premarketinfo.com the term “institutional orders” is used. In other words, extremely large buy or sell orders placed on the Open Book of the NYSE. Both the long-term and short term affects of these orders are covered in detail. Why do I mention this now? During Procter&Gamble’s (NYSE:PG) climb from 64 to 68 from mid-February through early April, it had to claw through one gigantic sell order after another from 66.50 to 68.00. Furthermore, there was another 500,000 shares on the book at 68.00 that the High Frequency Traders salivated over for weeks. For the time being, the big boys had it right as PG revealed poor earnings and the stock crumbled to 63.95 on Friday before recovering to close at 64.48. It is crucial for PG to hold Friday’s low to prevent a test of minor support around 62.50 and major support at 60.00. Expect resistance from Friday’s high (65.26) up to the gap from Thursday’s low at 66.63, as short-term quantitative players exit their longs from Friday’s bloodbath.

Another issue that had me leaning the wrong way was Johnson&Johnson (NYSE:JNJ). After finally breaking its long standing trading range from 64-66 to the downside, JNJ is right back in it. During the rally from 62.76 to 65.13, JNJ has produced six consecutive higher lows and four consecutive higher highs and closes. Similar to PG, JNJ has been pestered with large institutional sell orders all through the 65 and 66 handle. Expect that trend to continue as JNJ cut through 65 on Friday, but was unable to sustain that level until the close. For those attempting to exit JNJ on weakness, focus on Friday’s low (64.68) in order to lock-in profits.

Along the lines of traders taking on large size at a whole number is Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) at 34.00. Since its better than expected earnings release WFC has been range bound from 32.43-34.00, unable to make a decisive move one way or another. Perhaps the major sellers from the 34.50 area have lowered their expectations to 34 and that may keep a cap on WFC for now. Here is yet another issue with an impressive string of four consecutive higher highs and higher lows. If WFC cannot clear 34 early in the week, it will most likely drift back down to the lower end of its recent trading range. Similar to other financials that posted better than expected earnings, the earnings have not been good enough to inspire a new 52 week high as a result.

In closing, earnings season has been impressive (many beats, dividend hikes and stock buybacks) except for one thing. No new high in the June S&P 500 futures. In my opinion, if the numbers are as good as advertised, than the index should clear Friday’s high (1403) with ease and make an assault on 1419.75 early in the week. If not, the old adage “sell in May and go away” just may be the play. Or at the very least, investors should consider exploring some downside protection tactics, if a new high is not made this week.

April 27 Premarket Outlook

AMZN, and EXPE flying last night.  PG, CVX, F, MRK highlight this morning's earnings.  Technical outlook on these issues and more:

April 27 Premarket Movers

Stock	Movement	Reason	Our Comments
AMZN	Up 30 points.	Earnings last night.	Stock blasted off last night after report.  Consolidating in premarket between 224 and 226.  220 could be a good swing number as that was resistance from November.
WDC	Down 5 points.	Earnings last night.	A wild ride for WDC last night.  Traded up on initial report, and then got rocked.  May find some support at 38, which is 1 month low.
PG	Down $1.85	Earnings.	Stock falling this morning.  Keep an eye on 1 month low of 65.77, that may provide some initial support.
MRK	Bid up slightly.	Earnings.	Major resistance remains at 39, with HFT resistance in the 38.90s.
F	Up 25 cents.	Earnings.	Trading through key 12 resistance area in premarket.  12 may be a good swing number.  Has traded as high as 12.41 in premarket.
IP	Flat.	Earnings.	Quiet after reporting earnings.  52 week high of 36.50 remains major resistance.
EXPE	Up 20%.	Earnings.	Wow.  Stock blasting to new all time highs.  40 is a big psychological number.
* Listen to Market Outlook show at 8:45 ET for more market movers.